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#### Organization Behaviour Quiz

Question 1

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

Question 2

A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

Question 3

A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

Question 4

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

Question 5

Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

Question 6

A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

Question 7

Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

Question 8

Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Question 9

In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
marginal
marginal

Question 10

__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
Standard deviation
Standard deviation

Question 11

The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
expected value of perfect information
expected value of perfect information

Question 12

Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
3
3

Question 13

Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
a uniform distribution
a uniform distribution

Question 14

In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
sampling from
sampling from

Question 15

Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
random number ranges
random number ranges

Question 16

__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Time series
Time series

Question 17

__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Linear trend
Linear trend

Question 18

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
None of the above
None of the above

Question 19

rob
14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:
Yield, bushels per acre    Probability
350    .10
400    .18
450    .50
500    .22

The estimated average price per bushel is \$16.80.

What is the expected yield of the crop?
442
442

Question 20

__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
MAPD
MAPD

Question 21

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
.01
.01

Question 22

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
dependent, independent
dependent, independent

Question 23

In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
1
1

Question 24

__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Qualitative
Qualitative

Question 25

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

0.0400
0.0402
.0401
.0400
.0402

Question 26

The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.

4.37
4.39

Question 27

A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

0.6015
0.6017
.6016
.6015
.6017

Question 28

An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.

The probability of winning at least \$1,000.00 is ________.

.0006

Question 29

Consider the following decision tree.

What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “\$” in your answer.

Question 30

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.

\$26
26,
26

Question 31

Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.
Demand    Random
Number Ranges
5    00-14
6    15-44
7    45-69
8    70-84
9    85-99

Question 32

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.

.94

Question 33

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

246.66
246.68

Question 34

This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

Question 35

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

Question 36

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

Question 37

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Year    Sales
2001    2
2002    4
2003    10
2004    8
2005    14
2006    18
2007    17
2008    20

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

r=.9655
.9655
0.9655
r = .9654
r=.9654
.9654
0.9654
r = .9656
r=.9656
.9656
0.9656

Question 38

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

211.66
211.68

Question 39

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month    Actual Demand
March    20
April    25
May    40
June    35
July    30
August    45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

0.126
0.128
.127
.126
.128

Question 40

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Year    Sales    Forecast
2003    7    9
2004    12    10
2005    14    15
2006    20    22
2007    16    18
2008    25    21

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.