Question 1
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Answer
Question 2
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
Answer
Question 3
A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
Answer
Question 4
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Answer
Question 5
Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
Answer
Question 6
A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
Answer
Question 7
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
Answer
Question 8
Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Answer
Question 9
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
Answer
marginal
marginal
Question 10
__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
Answer
Standard deviation
Standard deviation
Question 11
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
Answer
expected value of perfect information
expected value of perfect information
Question 12
Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
Answer
3
3
Question 13
Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
Answer
a uniform distribution
a uniform distribution
Question 14
In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
Answer
sampling from
sampling from
Question 15
Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
Answer
random number ranges
random number ranges
Question 16
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Answer
Time series
Time series
Question 17
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Answer
Linear trend
Linear trend
Question 18
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Answer
None of the above
None of the above
Question 19
rob
14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:
Yield, bushels per acre Probability
350 .10
400 .18
450 .50
500 .22
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?
Answer
442
442
Question 20
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Answer
MAPD
MAPD
Question 21
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
Answer
.01
.01
Question 22
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
Answer
dependent, independent
dependent, independent
Question 23
In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
Answer
1
1
Question 24
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Answer
Qualitative
Qualitative
Question 25
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer
0.0400
0.0402
.0401
.0400
.0402
Question 26
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
4.37
4.39
Question 27
A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer
0.6015
0.6017
.6016
.6015
.6017
Question 28
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
Answer
.0006
Question 29
Consider the following decision tree.
What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.
Answer
Question 30
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.
Answer
$26
26,
26
Question 31
Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.
Demand Random
Number Ranges
5 00-14
6 15-44
7 45-69
8 70-84
9 85-99
Answer
Question 32
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.
Answer
.94
Question 33
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
246.66
246.68
Question 34
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Answer
Question 35
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Answer
Question 36
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
Answer
Question 37
Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Year Sales
2001 2
2002 4
2003 10
2004 8
2005 14
2006 18
2007 17
2008 20
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.
Answer
r=.9655
.9655
0.9655
r = .9654
r=.9654
.9654
0.9654
r = .9656
r=.9656
.9656
0.9656
Question 38
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
211.66
211.68
Question 39
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Answer
0.126
0.128
.127
.126
.128
Question 40
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Year Sales Forecast
2003 7 9
2004 12 10
2005 14 15
2006 20 22
2007 16 18
2008 25 21
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Answer
0.166
0.168
.167
.166
.168
